Three months after being recalled, Russia’s ambassador to the United States, Anatoly Antonov, returned to Washington on June 20^th, 2021. He was in an optimistic mood ahead of his return, expecting meetings scheduled with U.S. colleagues next week to be constructive, the RIA news agency reported.

The Russian Foreign Ministry announced on March 17 it was recalling Antonov for urgent talks after Biden said in an ABC interview he thought President Putin was a killer who would “pay a price” for alleged U.S. election meddling – an accusation that Moscow denies.

Later on April 15, Antonov’s 10 fellow diplomats were expelled in retaliation for what Washington says is the Kremlin’s U.S. election interference, a massive cyber attack and other hostile activity.

Russia, in response to U.S. sanctions, has imposed limits on the number of local staff the U.S. embassy can employ, forcing Washington to cut consular services. John Sullivan, the U.S. ambassador to Moscow, returned to Washington for consultations in April.

U.S.-Russian relation hit rock bottom.

Putin and Biden held a summit in Geneva, Switzerland on June 16, 2021. Agreement was reached to begin dialogues about nuclear weapons controls and cybersecurity. Russia and the US will also return ambassadors to each other.

Could this be the turning point for the U.S and Russia to reconcile with each other?

Professor Ma Fengshu, director of the Center for Russian and Central Asian Studies at Shandong University told that there are rather structural conflicts between the strategic goals of the two countries, and neither of them are likely to make substantive concessions. Thus, the Geneva summit is meaningful in form, but not as much in essence.

Not as pleasant as the Trump-Putin summit

June 16, 2021, Biden and Putin met in an 18th-century Swiss villa overlooking Lake Geneva, a soothing setting for what promises to be heated talks.

The first face-to-face meeting between Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin was estimated to run four to five hours or beyond while they discuss arms control, cyber-hacking and election interference. However, it lasted for only about three hours. A senior U.S. official told Reuters that Biden, Putin, their foreign ministers and interpreters met first for 93 minutes. After a break, the two sides met for 87 minutes in a larger group including their ambassadors.

But in a sign of the strained ties, it will not include any meals and the two will hold separate news conferences rather than a joint one.

In a press conference after the summit, Putin described the meeting as “constructive” and said there were “no hostilities,” with Biden, seemingly satisfied, saying he had done what he came to do and there was no substitute for face-to-face discussions.

Careful pleasantries aside, there were various indications that they failed to reach consensuses on sensitive issues – with sarcasms involved, even.

Both parties have clear evaluations of the situation.

To put it in Putin’s words, there had been no friendship, rather a pragmatic dialogue about their two countries’ interests. “This is not about trust, this is about self-interest and verification of self-interest,” Biden said, but he also cited a “genuine prospect” of improving relations.

Conventionally, state leaders would exchange gifts while meeting. So did Biden and Putin. The White House announced that Biden gave Putin a pair of customized aviator sunglasses and a crystal sculpture of bison, representing strength, unity and tenacity. Whereas Russia picked a set of writing pens with khokhloma decorative paintings, a kind of traditional Russian folk arts with a history of more than 300 years, in gold, red, green and other colors.

Putin has dealt with multiple US presidents, among which Trump was on close terms with him, never ceased to publicly praise on him – an act that drove the press to teasingly comment on the “bromance”.

During the Trump-Putin summit held in Helsinki, Finland, July 2018, Trump received a commemorative football of 2018 World Cup from Putin – a pleasant surprise. Trump tossed the football to the then first lady Melania, saying it would go to his youngest child Barron.  which turned out to be the highlight of the summit. The football turned out to be the highlight of the summit, eclipsing the gift exchange took place three years later.

Reuters said in a commentary on June 17^th that the Biden-Putin summit is not as pleasant as the Trump-Putin summit in 2018.

Just ice-breaking, not honeymooning

This is Biden’s first face-to-face meeting with Putin since taking office. It is also the last stop of Biden’s “European trip”.

In May 2021, the White House announced that the venue of the US Russia summit would be Geneva, Switzerland. At the press conference, U.S. national security adviser Sullivan said that face-to-face communication is vital for understanding the positioning and differences between the two sides.

Before the summit, the two sides frequently made “provocative remarks” on sensitive issues and had pessimistic expectations for reaching consensus. The public statement after the meeting showed some “moderate” achievements in cyber security and arms control.

Russian hackers have been provoking the sensitive nerves of the US for several years now. On April 15, 2021, the Biden government officially listed the Russian foreign intelligence agency as the perpetrator of the “solar wind” cyber attack, expelling diplomats as countermeasures. A major oil pipeline on the east coast of the United States was paralyzed by hacker attacks, resulting in a week-long fuel shortage in May. The blackmail Gang’s server is believed to be in Russia.

Before the US Russia summit, Biden warned that he intended to give Putin a choice: stop the attacks and crack down on cyber criminals operating on Russian territory, otherwise he would face a series of rising countermeasures.

Biden said at a news conference that he had questioned Putin how Russia would react if he attacked Russia’s oil field, its economic artery, implying that “critical infrastructure”, such as “energy and water”, should be exempted from cyber attacks.

Putin denied the accusation that these cyber attacks came from Russia, and said Russia was also a victim of such operations.

In addition, the United States and Russia also issued a brief joint statement concerning strategic stability. “The recently extended new strategic arms reduction treaty reflects our commitment to nuclear arms control,” the statement said. Today, we reaffirm the principle that nuclear war cannot be won or fought. “

In February 2021, Russia and the United States extended the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty for five years. The treaty limits the number of strategic nuclear warheads that the United States and Russia can deploy, and limits the delivery capacity of land-based and submarine missiles and bombers.

Sputnik reported on June 22, a few days after the release of the statement, that during the Carnegie international nuclear policy conference, Russian Vice Foreign Minister Ryabkov stated that the US and Russia would begin bilateral negotiations on strategic stability in the near future, and Russia proposed to discuss issues of common concern in the first stage.

Professor Ma fengshu believes that as the two largest military powers in the world, it is utterly important for both sides to maintain smooth diplomatic communication channels and avoid misjudgment. The dialogue in the field of arms control, echoing Biden’s election campaign, aims to avoid catastrophic conflict between Russia and the United States due to misjudgment.

“The returning of ambassadors and dialogue on cyber security and arms control are imperative. However, on the issues of cyber security, Ukraine and human rights, the two countries have shown more differences and mutual resentment, reflecting the serious mutual distrust between the two countries. This is also due to the sharp opposition between the strategic objectives of the two countries. ” Ma fengshu said.

In March 2021, Biden called Putin a “killer”, after which the two sides withdrew their ambassadors. At the press conference held on June 16, Putin responded that Biden had phoned to discuss the matter and had offered a “satisfactory” explanation, which also laid the foundation for returning ambassadors.

But Putin did not hesitate to list many human rights violations committed by the United States and accused the U.S. military of being responsible for the killing of civilians in Afghanistan and Iraq. “Who is responsible?” Putin asked, “who is the killer?”

Tit-for-tat tussles are also going on in the issue of human rights.

Alexei Navalny, an opposition leader in Russian, was previously arrested and imprisoned. Biden’s concern for his deteriorating health dates back to as early as April.

Before the US-Russia summit, Biden warned that if Navalny died, it would “once again show that Russia has little or no intention to abide by basic human rights”. After the US-Russia summit, ABC reporters also asked Putin about Navalny’s detention and questioned his suppression of political opponents.

Putin responded that the organization founded by Navalny is essentially “extremists”, and Russia is avoiding the chaos caused by social movements such as “Black Lives Matter” in the United States. “We witness disorder, destruction, violation of the law, etc., and we sympathize with the United States of America, but we do not want this to happen on our territory. ” Putin said.

Ma Bin, an associate researcher at the Institute of international studies of Fudan University, believes that the relationship between the United States and Russia has deteriorated for many years, and there are multiple conflicts between the two sides over not just values and military interests. Until major event that can pry the pattern in the international community comes up, their hands are tied – which the two countries already knew, hence the pessimism towards the summit.

“If breaking the ice refers to the materialization of the “US and Russia returning to negotiating table” vision, then the summit can well be an opportunity; If breaking the ice means they can go back to the “honeymoon” in bilateral relations, it’s way too long a shot. ” Ma Bin said.

Draw a red line for Ukraine’s accession to NATO

Ukraine, is another major division at the summit.

Russia and Ukraine used to both belong to the Soviet Union, and they are related in nationality and language. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Russia and Ukraine were “separated”, causing disputes over natural gas transit, the garrison of the Black Sea fleet, border demarcation and other issues. In recent years, Ukraine has been seeking to join NATO, to which Russia strongly opposed.

On March 17, 2014, the former Crimea region of Ukraine applied to join the Russian Federation after a comprehensive referendum on independence. The next day, Putin signed a treaty with Crimean leaders, and Crimea rushed into Russia. However, on June 8 that year, the new president of Ukraine, Poroshenko, declared that Ukraine would never recognize Russia’s territorial occupation of Crimea, sending Russia-Ukraine relations into further deterioration.

The United States and NATO are ambiguous about Ukraine’s accession to NATO, which still undoubtedly gives Ukraine hope.

On May 6, 2021, when Antony Blinken, US Secretary of state, visited Ukraine, White House spokesman Jean Pierre publicly expressed his support for Ukraine’s accession to NATO. Pierre also proposed that the Biden administration’s principle is that the door of NATO should be open to qualified new members. Subsequently, the white house quickly denied this claim, saying it was a “slip of the tongue”.

On June 14, NATO held a leadership meeting in Brussels, the capital of Belgium. The joint committee of the summit mentioned that NATO supported Ukraine to join, but did not put forward a timetable.

At the same time, in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the United States is also sparing no effort to stir up trouble. On June 11, the U.S. Department of Defense announced an additional $150 million in military assistance to Ukraine, including anti-artillery radar, anti-UAV system and security communication equipment. Statistics show that the United States has provided more than $2.5 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since 2014.

According to Ma fengshu, Belarus and Ukraine are currently the only strategic barriers for Russia to resist NATO military threats and ensure the security of the whole west and southwest of Russia. If Ukraine joins the Western club of which NATO and the EU as the main pillars, it will leave Russia with extreme danger and even potential threat to the stability of its internal affairs. Meanwhile, after the annexation of Crimea through the Ukrainian crisis, Russia’s strategic position in the Black Sea region shifted significantly. Therefore, Russia is highly unlikely to let go of Crimea.

“The two aforementioned points is sufficient to show how crucial the Ukrainian issue is to Russia, and why Russia will never allow Ukraine to join NATO.” Ma fengshu said.

On June 9, 2021, when talking to Russian media, Putin said that he did not agree with statements like “Ukraine cannot join NATO”. “No one can guarantee that Ukraine will not join NATO,” he said. Moreover, if Ukraine becomes a member of NATO, the flight time of missiles from Ukraine to Russia will be reduced to 7 to 10 minutes, which is a “red line” for Russia.

Putin also said: “if we want to shorten the missile flight time to 7 to 10 minutes, we must deploy the missile on the southern border of Canada or the northern border of Mexico. Is this the red line for the United States?”

In 2020, Russia’s GDP is about $1.5 trillion, which does not rank among the top economies in the world. However, as the main successor of the Soviet Union, Russia’s military strength and the tough foreign policy led by President Putin in recent years still secure its position in major global affairs.

Professor Wang Yiwei, director of the Institute of international affairs of Renmin University of China, said that in the hearts of the United States and even many European countries, Russia is a declining empire with weak economic power. However, Russia still has its trump cards in military security, nuclear weapons and diplomatic strategy.

Ma fengshu told reporters that from the perspective of the history of international relations, both Russia and the United States are ambitious world powers after World War II. Although Russia’s national strength has declined greatly since the Cold War was over, its complex of great power has not faded. It is still Russia’s dream to rejuvenate. This has also led to the structural and profound strategic contradiction between Russia and the United States.

It is worth mentioning that Geneva is Biden’s last stop of his trip to Europe, which is of symbolic significance.

Biden’s week-long diplomatic visit started on June 9. Aside from the US-Russia summit, there are also the UK-US summit, the group of seven (G7) summit, the NATO summit were also on the busy schedule.

In the Trump era, the United States withdrew from several multilateral institutions and threatened to withdraw from NATO once. The Biden administration did the opposite, claiming that “the United States wants to return to the negotiating table”.

Charles Michel, president of the European Council, said recently, “this means that we have a very strong partner to promote multilateral approach… Which is very different from the Trump government”.

On June 13 local time, the G7 summit ended in the UK. The joint communique issued after the meeting called out China. The spokesman of the Chinese Embassy in the UK said on June 14 that what the international community needs is unity and cooperation of all countries, and what the world saw at the summit is “small circle”, group politics and power politics, is artificially-created confrontation and division.

Still, there are also different views among European countries on their relations with China.

French President Macron said after the G7 summit that the G7 is not a “club” hostile to China. Members should still work with China on issues such as climate change, international trade and development policies. German Chancellor Angela Merkel also proposed that “without China’s cooperation, solutions will never be found in areas such as climate change.”

The Guardian reported on June 17 that after a marathon diplomatic visit, Biden said before returning to Washington that “the world has reached a fundamental turning point about what it will look like in ten years”.

“The international pattern in the next decade will be determined by two ‘triangles’, namely, the Sino-US-European triangle and the Sino-US-Russian triangle.” Wang Yiwei said . The competition between first triangle is mainly about technology, capital, global industrial chain and other fields; The second triangle undoubtedly focuses on military security. He said, “Biden’s intention is obvious during his trip to Europe.”